Friday I posted my interview with Tidewater’s (TDW) management team. The offshore space in general is really interesting right now, and they did a great job of walking through the current dynamics (stay tuned for more posts / pods from me on the offshore space….).
Cannabis is reviled----worth holding your nose and taking a look---institions can't/won't buy it---and historic holders are exhausted and dejected.......
On REITs, industrial REIT can be pretty good for playing a reshoring strategy, and less dependent on work from home no staying a thing
offices REITs for me is too high risk, yes recession might forced workers back in office, but will also make demand for office space lower, so it's kinda a lose-lose situation to me.
Tankers had a pretty interesting trajectory over the last 10 years. Just take a look at $STNG. The shipping industry is full of frauds and conmen though, so maybe best to avoid it all together
I really like internal combustion engines as a contrarian trade. Absolutely everybody hates them, yet it is a (slowly) growing industry, because worldwide demand will continue to grow, especially in Asia. EVs will never gain meaningful market share. There are stunningly cheap stocks.
Yes, cyclicality is a problem. If you want to buy Volkswagen, consider Porsche SE. It is a holding company for Volkswagen stock with a 25% discount, so you can get Volkswagen shares even cheaper. Nice dividend yield and competent management, too.
in the case of VW/Porsche, it have the extra issue of german deinsutrilization that is not priced in
When market have realized full gas storage at crazy price is not good news, I expect the company to get A LOT cheaper by let's say 2025. Especially if recession happen on top.
By then it also most likely will start moving more factories to eastern Europe where energy system will be less screwed (Hungary/Slovakia on Russian supply), Polish coal, Romania+Poland increasing nuclear
So while I like the idea, I am fine sitting it out 2-3 years. If I missed it so be it.
If not, the entry point will be so low it is one for the legend :D
What's Cable's answer to fixed wireless? Every cable bull I've read has dismissed it as a competitive threat, but T-Mobile and Verizon adding fixed wireless pretty quickly now
Verizon's 5g home internet goes up to gigabit speeds for like $35/month and $25 a month for 300 mbps with 10 year price locks. T-Mobile offers something similar. These services are much cheaper than Charter's non promotional pricing.
The cable story doesn't work if there's real competition. Margins will get squeezed. Verizon and T-Mobile can "lose" but absolutely trash Charter's margins. I expect broadband prices in the US to fall in the coming 24 months.
You should get the management team of DVD NO on that is a very interesting offshore play with potentially very significant upside. Also if you think the US REITS are interesting - you should take a look at UK/EU ones
Cannabis is reviled----worth holding your nose and taking a look---institions can't/won't buy it---and historic holders are exhausted and dejected.......
Agreed, while I was looking at the sector, and it got hammered another -30%
The very few cash flow positive one will survive and thrive, but patience will be needed
IIPR is also an option, as it is basically a "cannabis greenhouses" industrial REIT
On REITs, industrial REIT can be pretty good for playing a reshoring strategy, and less dependent on work from home no staying a thing
offices REITs for me is too high risk, yes recession might forced workers back in office, but will also make demand for office space lower, so it's kinda a lose-lose situation to me.
Tankers had a pretty interesting trajectory over the last 10 years. Just take a look at $STNG. The shipping industry is full of frauds and conmen though, so maybe best to avoid it all together
I really like internal combustion engines as a contrarian trade. Absolutely everybody hates them, yet it is a (slowly) growing industry, because worldwide demand will continue to grow, especially in Asia. EVs will never gain meaningful market share. There are stunningly cheap stocks.
Problem is that they are also cyclical, waiting to jump even lower if a recession
I would consider Volkswagen when EU stocks are done crashing in 18-24 months
Yes, cyclicality is a problem. If you want to buy Volkswagen, consider Porsche SE. It is a holding company for Volkswagen stock with a 25% discount, so you can get Volkswagen shares even cheaper. Nice dividend yield and competent management, too.
in the case of VW/Porsche, it have the extra issue of german deinsutrilization that is not priced in
When market have realized full gas storage at crazy price is not good news, I expect the company to get A LOT cheaper by let's say 2025. Especially if recession happen on top.
By then it also most likely will start moving more factories to eastern Europe where energy system will be less screwed (Hungary/Slovakia on Russian supply), Polish coal, Romania+Poland increasing nuclear
So while I like the idea, I am fine sitting it out 2-3 years. If I missed it so be it.
If not, the entry point will be so low it is one for the legend :D
Coal.
Public REITS look the most hated per the poll.
If rates are topping out and occupancy = job recovery eventually then it looks like cracking value here.
What's Cable's answer to fixed wireless? Every cable bull I've read has dismissed it as a competitive threat, but T-Mobile and Verizon adding fixed wireless pretty quickly now
Verizon's 5g home internet goes up to gigabit speeds for like $35/month and $25 a month for 300 mbps with 10 year price locks. T-Mobile offers something similar. These services are much cheaper than Charter's non promotional pricing.
The cable story doesn't work if there's real competition. Margins will get squeezed. Verizon and T-Mobile can "lose" but absolutely trash Charter's margins. I expect broadband prices in the US to fall in the coming 24 months.
You should get the management team of DVD NO on that is a very interesting offshore play with potentially very significant upside. Also if you think the US REITS are interesting - you should take a look at UK/EU ones