Tomorrow night (August 3) at 8 PM EST, I’m doing a twitter space on cable / telecom / media (TMT) earnings with some fellow cable junkies / investors. I’ve really enjoyed every space I’ve participated in, and I’m hoping to do one or two a month going forward (I am hopeful we’ve got a great crew for a Disney / Marvel themed space next week!).
My case against NFLX is that the library isn't worth anywhere near what they've valued it at on the balance sheet, because most of it has little rewatch value. So when the new release pipeline for a region (as we've seen in NA) is weak, they have net churn. Thus the shoveling of money into new releases can't stop, at least not until the valuation of streaming services decreases, which isn't exactly bullish.
I've seen a crackdown on password sharing put forth as a way to drive growth, but the better way IMO to view the sharing is as a churn reducer, creating a social stigma for canceling. A friend or relative who lives far away whom you don't talk to that much isn't going to get regularly asked "how much of the NFLX are you watching?" (barring a real rate increase).
My case against NFLX is that the library isn't worth anywhere near what they've valued it at on the balance sheet, because most of it has little rewatch value. So when the new release pipeline for a region (as we've seen in NA) is weak, they have net churn. Thus the shoveling of money into new releases can't stop, at least not until the valuation of streaming services decreases, which isn't exactly bullish.
I've seen a crackdown on password sharing put forth as a way to drive growth, but the better way IMO to view the sharing is as a churn reducer, creating a social stigma for canceling. A friend or relative who lives far away whom you don't talk to that much isn't going to get regularly asked "how much of the NFLX are you watching?" (barring a real rate increase).