Today is the halving, when the number of new Bitcoins minted as a reward for mining gets cut in half. Halvings happen every four years (CNN described it as “bitcoin bros’ World Cup,” which cracks me up
People make a lot of assumptions about the true BTC "float" to impute market cap. But no one really knows what that is. BTC Treasuries can account for like 12% of the float. But, I think you can safely assume maybe another 10% is lost + Satosthi holds about 1 million BTC.
To me, that would be an interesting calculation, maybe the float is closer to like 15 million or so. Just a guess.
1- The crux of the halving argument you didn't touch. It goes by. It bitcoin price doesn't double, then security of the network will collapse because miners will go out of business. But this would be a terrible outcome. Therefore, Bitcoin has to double. A lot of people truly believe in that!
2- I am now interested in the math of adding math capacity as a BTC call option versus just buying call options. I suppose they do it because the implied volatility is much lower than in Chicago or in crypto exchanges. But they are the type of people who think BTC $150k is an inevitability, so who knows.
3- You are ignoring the price reflexivity of Bitcoin. Things can't be priced in, because it has no cash flows and no fundamentals. Pricing stuff works in public markets because if you misprice stuff, Thoma Bravo appears and LBO your asset. (But even then, pricing stuff in only works as a floor. There is no law of finance that will ever make Truth Social trade at a price that refelcts the discounted cash flows of the business). If people believe price goes up after halving, it can't go up (that much) before the halving, because lot lots of speculators will be waiting in the sidelines. And regardless of the price, they'll jump in after the halfving. I enough people believe that (as I think that are), doesn't matter if Bitcoin "price" is $500 $5000 or $50,000.
People make a lot of assumptions about the true BTC "float" to impute market cap. But no one really knows what that is. BTC Treasuries can account for like 12% of the float. But, I think you can safely assume maybe another 10% is lost + Satosthi holds about 1 million BTC.
To me, that would be an interesting calculation, maybe the float is closer to like 15 million or so. Just a guess.
sound piece !
Some points (from a nocoiner)
1- The crux of the halving argument you didn't touch. It goes by. It bitcoin price doesn't double, then security of the network will collapse because miners will go out of business. But this would be a terrible outcome. Therefore, Bitcoin has to double. A lot of people truly believe in that!
2- I am now interested in the math of adding math capacity as a BTC call option versus just buying call options. I suppose they do it because the implied volatility is much lower than in Chicago or in crypto exchanges. But they are the type of people who think BTC $150k is an inevitability, so who knows.
3- You are ignoring the price reflexivity of Bitcoin. Things can't be priced in, because it has no cash flows and no fundamentals. Pricing stuff works in public markets because if you misprice stuff, Thoma Bravo appears and LBO your asset. (But even then, pricing stuff in only works as a floor. There is no law of finance that will ever make Truth Social trade at a price that refelcts the discounted cash flows of the business). If people believe price goes up after halving, it can't go up (that much) before the halving, because lot lots of speculators will be waiting in the sidelines. And regardless of the price, they'll jump in after the halfving. I enough people believe that (as I think that are), doesn't matter if Bitcoin "price" is $500 $5000 or $50,000.
Wall st has 8+ duplicative etfs. They can naked short. Who needs supply 🥷