Long time follower, always appreciate your sharp thinking. Unfortunately Mr. Market is not always logical and/or the financials deteriorate, and we miss the punt widely like with the broadcasters. etc.
I think you've nailed it with the offshore thesis, especially considering how few things are left that could go wrong. Folks should stand up and listen.
Thanks for the post. In the offshore space, you have stocks in a supply vessel company (TDW) and not drillers (VAL, RIG, etc), right? What are the pros and cons? I'm curious to hear your thoughts. They seem to be highly correlated and bullish.
I like them both, and tried to cover both in here. I lean a little towards TDW, but know people who go the other way. I think all of the drivers are quite similar, so in almost all worlds if one works all work and if one fails all fail
Well thought out and put together. Thanks for your analysis.
We also like plays in the energy space, but are zeroing in on asset-light business models that will likely thrive if inflation is stickier than the general consensus, or not.
Putting it all together, from both a fundamental and technical perspective, I see the following:
US stock indexes appear to be headed lower over the course of 2023 and maybe into 2024; this is in accordance with the charts, the labor market, and the Fed themselves basically telling us this is what they want.
At some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed (maybe not lower rates, but a less-hawkish tone at least) and a potential washout of bullish sentiment, both stocks and commodities may begin a very strong multi-month cyclical bull market rally.
We have seen the first year of what is likely to be a multi-year secular bear market, likely to be characterized by wild swings in both directions, creating a lot of opportunity for the active investor.
The best portfolio for this sort of environment is likely comprised of high quality dividend-paying value stocks, select emerging market ETFs, US equity index shorts, and a substantial amount of cash or short duration cash equivalents.
Long time follower, always appreciate your sharp thinking. Unfortunately Mr. Market is not always logical and/or the financials deteriorate, and we miss the punt widely like with the broadcasters. etc.
I think you've nailed it with the offshore thesis, especially considering how few things are left that could go wrong. Folks should stand up and listen.
This was amazing! 🙌 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
whats your take on TDW warrants
Thanks for the post. In the offshore space, you have stocks in a supply vessel company (TDW) and not drillers (VAL, RIG, etc), right? What are the pros and cons? I'm curious to hear your thoughts. They seem to be highly correlated and bullish.
I like them both, and tried to cover both in here. I lean a little towards TDW, but know people who go the other way. I think all of the drivers are quite similar, so in almost all worlds if one works all work and if one fails all fail
Thanks!
Well thought out and put together. Thanks for your analysis.
We also like plays in the energy space, but are zeroing in on asset-light business models that will likely thrive if inflation is stickier than the general consensus, or not.
Impacts for investors:
https://open.substack.com/pub/finiche/p/off-to-the-races?r=1s05vd&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Putting it all together, from both a fundamental and technical perspective, I see the following:
US stock indexes appear to be headed lower over the course of 2023 and maybe into 2024; this is in accordance with the charts, the labor market, and the Fed themselves basically telling us this is what they want.
At some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed (maybe not lower rates, but a less-hawkish tone at least) and a potential washout of bullish sentiment, both stocks and commodities may begin a very strong multi-month cyclical bull market rally.
We have seen the first year of what is likely to be a multi-year secular bear market, likely to be characterized by wild swings in both directions, creating a lot of opportunity for the active investor.
The best portfolio for this sort of environment is likely comprised of high quality dividend-paying value stocks, select emerging market ETFs, US equity index shorts, and a substantial amount of cash or short duration cash equivalents.