Some things and ideas: March 2024
Every month, I put out a “some things and ideas” post with random thoughts on articles or market stuff that caught my attention in the last month (as well as some fantasy book recommendations and some other monthly recurring reminders!).
My monthly overview (Monthly recurring piece)
I consider YAVB my “empire” with four core pieces: this blog / substack (the free side), the premium side of this blog, my podcast (also on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube), and my twitter account. You can see my 2024 vision and goals for the empire here. If you like the blog / free site, I'd encourage you to check out the pod, follow me on twitter, and maybe even subscribe to the premium site!
A bonus note: I get asked from lots of people about how to break into the finance industry. I detailed it more here, but my top advice would be to go out and start a substack (substack recently gave me a referral code if you start one; if you use that, awesome! But I’ve been recommending starting a substack long before they offered referrals!). If you do launch a substack, please let me know so I can try to be helpful.
State of the markets (Monthly recurring piece)
I like to use the CNN “Fear & Greed” Index just to quantify where the markets are. Right now, it’s tilting towards the higher end of greed into extreme greed….
Given two of this month’s post were “the quality bubble” and “crypto, mania, and reflexivity”, it should not surprise regular readers that a “greed” reading feels a little light to me. It’s not the whole market, but there are lots of places that are pushing hard into exuberance IMO. In particular, anything that touches AI or crypto has been just screaming higher, with many of the largest players doubling or tripling so far this year:
And, as mentioned in the quality bubble, it feels like there are a lot of companies that are getting treated as inevitable to win / dominate their market, but even if they do the returns from today’s prices don’t seem particularly attractive (and, if they don’t, look out!).
What’s an investor to do? Look, I realize I sound just like every other active investor, but I think that there’s a really attractive opportunity out there for anyone willing to buy and hold things with hair or some complexity on them. Stories that are completely clean and working are trading for huge premiums to things with hair / complexity; in the short run that underperformance is painful but if you’re willing to stomach a little volatility I suspect the hair / complexity outperforms nicely in the long run.
But honestly, I’ve been saying something similar for years, and the SPY has been straight up and to the right so who knows….
Nerd Corner (Monthly recurring piece)
There’s no hiding it; I’m a massive nerd. I read 3-4 fantasy books a month, my favorite pastime is playing board games with my wife and friends, and I was an eager supporter of the Brandon Sanderson Kickstarter (yes, I splurged and went for the hardcover books).
Anyway, I figured a few of you are nerds like me, so I started this segment to give recs of what I’m nerding out over currently, with the hope that you’ll either try it and enjoy it or recommend me similarly nerdy things that I’ll enjoy. This month’s recs:
I mentioned last month that I started the Dungeon Crawler Carl series. I finished all the books that were out (taking me through the 6th book) this month and loved the whole series; it’s not going to be for everyone, but if you enjoyed the Cradle or Wandering Inn Series (both of which I highly recommend), I suspect you’ll enjoy Dungeon Crawler Carl.
I’ve also been diving back into the Wheel of Time series; I read the first four years back and put it down but trying to get re-motivated….
PS- outside of my monthly recs, I constantly get asked what my favorite fantasy books are. So I’m just going to throw this list out monthly:
Anything Brandon Sanderson writes; he’s by far the best fantasy author out there. I’d probably start with Mistborn, though Tess and the Emerald Sea is basically a standalone book and might be my favorite book he’s written. The Frugal Wizard’s Handbook for Surviving Medieval England is also a standalone book and a very fun and fast read.
Kingkiller is probably the best series I’ve ever read; waiting for the third is agony.
Gentleman Bastards is right up there with Kingkiller; the mix of fun and world building is outstanding.
Red Rising series is more sci-fi, but my god is it good. I would literally stay up all night to read every book the day they came out (note: I’ve only read the first trilogy; I’m going to read the second when the last book comes out later this year).
If you’re looking for something a little more under the radar (most of the books above are widely regarded as some of the best fantasy books / series ever), the Licanius Trilogy was fantastic.
First Law trilogy is excellent. It can get a little brutal / graphic though; there are a bunch of sequels and spins, but I’ve never been able to finish them because one of them got so brutal I just put the book down and never picked it up again. But the first trilogy is really, really great.
The Cradle series probably isn’t as “good” as the books above, but I binged them and every fantasy fan I’ve recommended them to has said something along the line of “I read all ten books in two months after I opened the first one.”
I’ve also really enjoyed that author’s newest series, Last Horizon!
The Wandering Inn series isn’t for everyone, and the first ~150 pages of the first book need to get powered through…. but, if you can power through them, the world building here is incredible, and I’ve had so many friends get hooked by this series. If you like hard fantasy, I can near guarantee you’ll like it.
Other things that caught my eye (monthly recurring piece)
I mentioned my fascination with BOXX last month; this provides a lot of the downsides and risks
How Panera Bread Ducked California’s New $20 Minimum Wage Law
Bitcoin miners are a better bet than actual token, says Bernstein
Bitcoin bulls cite a simple reason for its rally: not enough coins
Automakers Are Sharing Consumers’ Driving Behavior With Insurance Companies
Chip by chip, this ice cream flavor is melting away
The issue is chocolate chip ice cream is just completely dominated by cookies and cream and cookie dough flavors. That said, the extinction of any ice cream flavor is obviously a tragedy; I’m tempted to start a gofundme.
The mystery social media account schooling congress on how to do its job
US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years