Yesterday, MoneyGram (MGI) announced a deal to be acquired for $11/share, a nifty little premium to the prior day’s closing price of ~$9/share and a rather large ~50% premium to the “unaffected” share price of just over $7/share from December 14 (
Eh. Hard to put any juice into KSS when Acacia pretty much established themselves as a (starboard backed?) saber rattler with CMTL like, moments before...
I don't know, 50/50 odds on a fuzzy M&A bid coming from a Reuter's piece seems fine? Did you have more color here that made you extra confident everything would go through?
More generally, the thing that's been kind of exhausting lately is that every drop in every name just immediately turns into a falling knife. A giant corporation has a bad quarter and suddenly its stock is down 25%. $100bn+ in market cap wiped out in an eye blink. Not because of deep fraud or anything, just a bad quarter. Weak earnings and light guidance is suddenly a death knell.
What if the MGI deal didn't come through because of some random issue? With order books this thin, I'd be worried about getting stuck in at 5 rather than finding an orderly reversion to 7, down more than twice as much as I ever thought I'd profit on the upside.
There's all kinds of gives and takes you can do on pricing/trade risk/etc but I guess my basic surprise is that you think 50/50 odds is "too cheap". Just doesn't seem that crazy for the overall market environment right now?
SHLX - cash offer, puts are overpriced, and rich history of takeunders by GPs in the energy space.
Eh. Hard to put any juice into KSS when Acacia pretty much established themselves as a (starboard backed?) saber rattler with CMTL like, moments before...
I don't know, 50/50 odds on a fuzzy M&A bid coming from a Reuter's piece seems fine? Did you have more color here that made you extra confident everything would go through?
More generally, the thing that's been kind of exhausting lately is that every drop in every name just immediately turns into a falling knife. A giant corporation has a bad quarter and suddenly its stock is down 25%. $100bn+ in market cap wiped out in an eye blink. Not because of deep fraud or anything, just a bad quarter. Weak earnings and light guidance is suddenly a death knell.
What if the MGI deal didn't come through because of some random issue? With order books this thin, I'd be worried about getting stuck in at 5 rather than finding an orderly reversion to 7, down more than twice as much as I ever thought I'd profit on the upside.
There's all kinds of gives and takes you can do on pricing/trade risk/etc but I guess my basic surprise is that you think 50/50 odds is "too cheap". Just doesn't seem that crazy for the overall market environment right now?
Look at BALY