TL;DR: On their Q3’25 earnings call, Enviri (NVRI; disclosure: long) told you they were deep in a strategic review that suggested the company was worth more than the stock price.
In this case, if there is an alpha, it is that the odds (of sale) in your model are different from the implied odds in the market, and you have a good reason why you are right.
Not familiar with the case, one legit edge could be you followed the guy (mgt) in the past, and have a fairly confident read at how serious s/he is.
Having a better read on a key person sounds pretty unreliable, but, counterintuitively, it's one of the most reliable edges in my experience.
very likely underestimating the size\scale of people willing to act with nonpublic info in today's culture. it is no longer that unusual to see it retrospectively in share prices.
what if you directly knew days prior when trump announced a major tariff pause\change?
In this case, if there is an alpha, it is that the odds (of sale) in your model are different from the implied odds in the market, and you have a good reason why you are right.
Not familiar with the case, one legit edge could be you followed the guy (mgt) in the past, and have a fairly confident read at how serious s/he is.
Having a better read on a key person sounds pretty unreliable, but, counterintuitively, it's one of the most reliable edges in my experience.
very likely underestimating the size\scale of people willing to act with nonpublic info in today's culture. it is no longer that unusual to see it retrospectively in share prices.
what if you directly knew days prior when trump announced a major tariff pause\change?
Congrats. Great idea / great outcome. Exactly what I love.