If stock stays down here, they retire one third of the float in two years with existing FCF, which makes the $2.50 per share FCF (first award tier) achievable. But they can't really guarantee the market will cooperate with a higher multiple so even then the first tier may be out of reach let alone the other tiers.
Also worth noting the founder CEO Schuck has already pulled ~$1.1B worth of stock proceeds out since IPO (~21.7 million shares sold), so the $600 million max upside comp package is probably not life changing for him anyway.
Interesting situation regardless, thanks for highlighting!
Hi Andrew, I have read several of your “dark arts” posts and wondered whether you have any data on how these situations tend to work out on average. My impression is that it is quite difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Did some digging / scenario modeling on GTM
If stock stays down here, they retire one third of the float in two years with existing FCF, which makes the $2.50 per share FCF (first award tier) achievable. But they can't really guarantee the market will cooperate with a higher multiple so even then the first tier may be out of reach let alone the other tiers.
Also worth noting the founder CEO Schuck has already pulled ~$1.1B worth of stock proceeds out since IPO (~21.7 million shares sold), so the $600 million max upside comp package is probably not life changing for him anyway.
Interesting situation regardless, thanks for highlighting!
Hi Andrew, I have read several of your “dark arts” posts and wondered whether you have any data on how these situations tend to work out on average. My impression is that it is quite difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.