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Vin's avatar

Did you mean to say Lucifer twice in the manifest example sentence?

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Zack Morris's avatar

I'm also long a small amount of SPOT and share your opinions on the bull case, but the concern that has thus far led me to not increase beyond a starter position is competition from the crypto/NFT space and/or Square/Tidal. Chris Dixon put out a nice thread on this recently "Web 3 - your take rate is my opportunity." To be fair, Dixon's hypothesis could be applied to any social media platform with an advertising business model and also represents a risk to Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, etc. https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/1425645850672308225

From Dixon's tweet: "Today there are over 8 million musicians on streaming services, yet less than 15,000 musicians (less that 0.2%) make more than $50K/year. That’s because the vast majority of the revenue is kept by the streaming services and music labels. With NFTs, musicians keep over 90% of sales. By cutting out layers of intermediaries, musicians can credibly support themselves with just a thousand true fans."

One project in the space is Audius (AUDIO) which was described today by Packy McCormick in Not Boring as web3 Soundcloud. After inking a deal with TikTok AUDIO's market cap recently surged above $1B - there's real traction here and it's soooooooooo early!

With Square/Tidal, the concern is that if the whole music rights/labels/streaming ecosystem is disrupted by web 3, Square/Tidal seems much better positioned to recognize/catalyze the shift and accrue value on their platform vs. Spotify.

Idk what this all is going to look like yet, I don't think anyone does but at this point I don't think it's a negligible tail risk that the whole music rights/labels/streaming ecosystem is completely disrupted by web 3 within the next decade.

Do you have thoughts on this?

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