Over the weekend, I put up an article on investing in industries in inflection. The crux of the article is that if you can find and identify a change (an inflection) in something (whether that’s a company or an industry) before the market does, there’s often a heck of a lot of alpha to be made. And I think right now we’re at an inflection point when it comes to merger arbitrage and anti-trust investing; there’s been a sea change, and the market has yet to pick up on it. If I’m right about that inflection, it presents the opportunity for investors to make a heck of a lot of money betting on merger arbitrage going forward.
Do Spirit’s disappointing earnings change the outlook for the deal?
Hi Andrew thank you very much for your extremely valuable insight on this matter. On $SAVE, how did you get the 30% of winning likelhood bet by the market? $SAVE price has been trending lower since 2022, and even the COVID low was above $10.
Assuming there is no deal, I don't see much room for $SAVE to further drop..? Afterall they still have a chance to sell to Frontier.
Any thoughts on Exxon's proposed acquisition of Pioneer for ~$65 billion? The market is already pricing in a high chance for the deal to close. From my perspective it seems like antitrust scrutiny is a bit different within the energy sector
What are the odds a settlement is reached before trial in next couple of weeks?