Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later in the month.
NBC renewing the Premier League rights is a pretty strong sign that Amazon and the other streamers aren't that interested in bidding in sports rights. Not being in the top 3 bidders (NBC was reportedly behind two pairings (I forget which off the top of my head) of ESPN/Turner/CBS/Fox) has pretty big implications for NFL Sunday Ticket: $500m a year for all the PL rights (no RSN or local TV competition) is a pretty strong sign that much more than $2bn a year for out-of-market NFL games is unrealistic.
There've been a couple of stories in recent months, of course, that AMZN is the lead bidder for Sunday Ticket, but these have the quality of NFL plants to try to coax bigger bids (the NFL has always played the PR game, going back at least as far as Rozelle). The direct subscription revenue possibility of Sunday Ticket isn't that much more than a billion in real terms: the amount over that means that it only makes sense in the context of a churn-reduction strategy, even if the NFL Films library or whatever is thrown in. Most of the churn reduction from Sunday Ticket will already be there from Thursday Night Football.
I think at this point it's most likely that DirecTV renews Sunday Ticket at $2.5bn a year (not much of an increase, but the current DirecTV deal was rushed through to keep the AT&T sale going) and gets the ability to offer it through DirecTV Stream, and maybe on the side takes a 50% equity interest in NFL Media. Next most likely is no one hits the NFL's reserve bid and they work out a one-season deal with CBS and Fox where they have out-of-market streaming rights to their respective games (CBS on Paramount+ and Fox sublicenses to Youtube TV or Sling or DTV Stream), with the NFL arranging the schedule so most teams have an approximately equal number of CBS and Fox appearances.
Red rising series is pretty legit.
Hi Andrew,
You've been bullish on Peloton and an avid user of Peloton. But what prevents you from being a shareholder of Peloton? What's most concerning you?
NBC renewing the Premier League rights is a pretty strong sign that Amazon and the other streamers aren't that interested in bidding in sports rights. Not being in the top 3 bidders (NBC was reportedly behind two pairings (I forget which off the top of my head) of ESPN/Turner/CBS/Fox) has pretty big implications for NFL Sunday Ticket: $500m a year for all the PL rights (no RSN or local TV competition) is a pretty strong sign that much more than $2bn a year for out-of-market NFL games is unrealistic.
There've been a couple of stories in recent months, of course, that AMZN is the lead bidder for Sunday Ticket, but these have the quality of NFL plants to try to coax bigger bids (the NFL has always played the PR game, going back at least as far as Rozelle). The direct subscription revenue possibility of Sunday Ticket isn't that much more than a billion in real terms: the amount over that means that it only makes sense in the context of a churn-reduction strategy, even if the NFL Films library or whatever is thrown in. Most of the churn reduction from Sunday Ticket will already be there from Thursday Night Football.
I think at this point it's most likely that DirecTV renews Sunday Ticket at $2.5bn a year (not much of an increase, but the current DirecTV deal was rushed through to keep the AT&T sale going) and gets the ability to offer it through DirecTV Stream, and maybe on the side takes a 50% equity interest in NFL Media. Next most likely is no one hits the NFL's reserve bid and they work out a one-season deal with CBS and Fox where they have out-of-market streaming rights to their respective games (CBS on Paramount+ and Fox sublicenses to Youtube TV or Sling or DTV Stream), with the NFL arranging the schedule so most teams have an approximately equal number of CBS and Fox appearances.
Cool on the pod transcripts. Always useful later when you want to CMD-F a passage or keyword.