In general, I've tried not to think much about macro over the past few years. I much preferred to think about micro (company specific) ideas. Obviously, Corona has thrown a lot of that into question: for a lot of companies, whether they're investable or not depends on how long the economic shutdown lasts. As an extreme example, if you thought we needed to fully lock the country down for five years in response to Corona (again, an extreme example), every single travel or restaurant related stock would be completely uninvestable because they'd all be bankrupt. In contrast, if you thought the shut down was fully ending this Friday because some miracle cure was coming, every travel or restaurant related stock would be a screaming buy because they are, across the board, discounting months and months of hugely depressed revenues. Again, those are super extreme examples, but sometimes extremes can be useful for highlighting a point!
Corona dislocation and alpha potential
Corona dislocation and alpha potential
Corona dislocation and alpha potential
In general, I've tried not to think much about macro over the past few years. I much preferred to think about micro (company specific) ideas. Obviously, Corona has thrown a lot of that into question: for a lot of companies, whether they're investable or not depends on how long the economic shutdown lasts. As an extreme example, if you thought we needed to fully lock the country down for five years in response to Corona (again, an extreme example), every single travel or restaurant related stock would be completely uninvestable because they'd all be bankrupt. In contrast, if you thought the shut down was fully ending this Friday because some miracle cure was coming, every travel or restaurant related stock would be a screaming buy because they are, across the board, discounting months and months of hugely depressed revenues. Again, those are super extreme examples, but sometimes extremes can be useful for highlighting a point!