<![CDATA[Yet Another Value Blog: Yet Another Value Podcast]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/s/yet-another-value-podcasthttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!35nB!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1233ffbd-f395-45fa-b7dc-fa3afb7554f9_1280x1280.pngYet Another Value Blog: Yet Another Value Podcasthttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/s/yet-another-value-podcastSubstackWed, 16 Sep 2026 02:35:53 GMT<![CDATA[Ian Cassel on Stock Picker, the book that blew me away | MicroCapClub]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/ian-cassel-on-stock-picker-the-bookhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/ian-cassel-on-stock-picker-the-bookTue, 15 Sep 2026 13:34:31 GMTIan Cassel has been picking microcaps for twenty years, and his argument in his new book, Stock Picker, is that the edge everyone assumes has been arbitraged away is actually coming back. Not the spreadsheet edge. The one that comes from getting on a plane, spending a full day with a CEO instead of an hour, and learning to sense when something is wrong before the numbers say so. His line is that with AI write-ups everywhere, the only place left to get an edge is the conversations that are not recorded, transcribed or scraped, and that puts the game back where it was 30 years ago.

The other half of the book is less comfortable and, for me, the reason it hit. Ian opens with his mother's death and keeps going: living off your own capital, the maturation of an investor running alongside the maturation of a person, what it costs to be the one who gets the credit and the blame. We get into why most microcaps deserve to be rented rather than owned, the junior miner curve and the 36 month rule, how he decides which company visit is worth the flight, scarcity as a reason a stock reprices, why capital allocation barely appears in a 300 page book about picking stocks, and the losing-streak instinct that kills concentrated managers: doubling down instead of diversifying. I push back on whether the microcap universe he describes still exists in the US. Fair warning, I loved this book and it shows.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming webinar with AlphaSense

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Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[UK stocks are dirt cheap. Why won't the boards act? $ZIG $CRW | Undervalued-Shares]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/uk-stocks-are-dirt-cheap-why-wonthttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/uk-stocks-are-dirt-cheap-why-wontFri, 11 Sep 2026 14:02:53 GMTA quarter of the companies on the London Stock Exchange's main board have disappeared in four years. Private equity keeps paying 50 and 60 percent premiums and still walking away with a bargain, because the starting valuations are broken. Swen Lorenz of Undervalued-Shares has spent the last few months writing open letters to UK boards telling them to stop waiting to be rescued and start pulling the levers they already have.

I have been calling the UK an emerging market on this podcast for three years, and my problem with the trade is right there in the setup: if the only way you make money is owning the one company that happens to get taken out, that is not alpha. So we spend the first half on what would actually fix it. Swen puts most of the blame on the big domestic funds, in outflow for a decade, pushing companies toward dividends to fund their own redemptions. I put most of it on boards that own no stock, treat the seat as a club membership, and check the dividend box every year. Then we get concrete on two names. ZIGUP (ZIG), which I own a little of, has a plan that pays seven executives up to 69 million pounds if the share price re-rates, trades under four times EBITDA, and still has not bought back a single share. And Craneware, which turned down a 26 pound approach from Bain last year and now trades at 13.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal.ai is the modern financial data provider. Through their web-based Terminal and AI connectors, Fiscal.ai provides real-time financial data, earnings call transcripts, filings, fund letters, and much more. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off any of their paid plans.

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$TBBB: Tiendas 3B is Mexico's Aldi. Is it too late to buy? | Fruit Tree Capital]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/tbbb-tiendas-3b-is-mexicos-aldi-ishttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/tbbb-tiendas-3b-is-mexicos-aldi-isMon, 07 Sep 2026 18:13:02 GMTTiendas 3B has more than 3,700 stores in central Mexico, opens roughly 150 more every quarter, and earns its money back on a new store in about two years. It is the Aldi model, built by a founder who saw BIM work in Turkey, moved to a country where he did not speak the language, and has spent 21 years compounding it. Alberto Vadia of Fruit Tree Capital thinks it is a hundred bagger from here.

My problem is the price. The stock is approaching $50, it has run a ton, and the bulls I was reading a few months ago were underwriting it in the mid 30s. So I push Alberto on the thing that actually decides this: do the unit economics survive the move from 3,500 stores to 15,000, or does a two year payback quietly become a four year payback once they leave central Mexico? We also get into the two equity offerings from a business that self funds every store it opens, why every other hard discounter on earth stayed private, what Costco at 40 times earnings implies for a Mexican retailer, and whether adding fruits and vegetables is an expansion or a risk.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Even better: they recently released an MCP that lets you connect their transcripts to the AI model of your choice. If you’re interested, click here to check out their TBBB transcript.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lmb-limbach-missed-the-data-centerhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lmb-limbach-missed-the-data-centerTue, 01 Sep 2026 13:21:09 GMTLimbach spent three years turning itself from a general contractor into an owner direct services business, and the market loved it right up until this summer. Then organic revenue went down mid single digits, EBITDA fell 30%, guidance came down from $90m to $80m, and the stock lost half its value. Yaron Naymark of 1 Main Capital pitched me this name in June 2023, watched it 6.5x, sold most of it, and is back buying it after a 75% drawdown.

His argument is that the EBITDA decline is fixed cost deleverage on a demand air pocket, not a broken business, and that the bigger story is the one Limbach missed. While FIX and EME compounded on data centers, Limbach stayed singularly focused on owner direct work and ended up with effectively zero data center exposure. The CYMCOR acquisition announced alongside Q2 is the first real move to fix that. I push back on the bear case that management knowingly bid a pile of low margin work, on whether owner direct is just general contracting by another name, on whether wage inflation from the data center boom is quietly eating them, and on whether a 2016 de-SPAC ever escapes the gravity of $10 per share. We finish on how Yaron invests around AI without pretending to know who wins: Limbach, IWG, and why he re-initiated KKR.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Even better: they recently released an MCP that lets you connect their transcripts to the AI model of your choice. If you’re interested, click here to check out their LMB transcript.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$SEE.L: Europe just made this duopoly mandatory. Why is it 11x free cash flow? | Hugo Navarro]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/seel-europe-just-made-this-duopolyhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/seel-europe-just-made-this-duopolySun, 30 Aug 2026 15:52:43 GMTEvery new car sold in Europe now has to watch the driver's face. Two companies in the world can actually do it, Seeing Machines and Smart Eye, and they spent twenty years and hundreds of millions of dollars getting there. Hugo Navarro's argument (see his full write up here) is that the market has not repriced what happens next: a roughly 55 million dollar fixed cost base, automotive production going from 488,000 vehicles in Q4 2025 to 2.1 million in Q4 2026, and 20 to 40 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2027 against a 330 million market cap. If Japan and the US follow with their own mandates, close to every incremental dollar of revenue drops straight to free cash flow.

I push back hard in a few places. There is a 55 million dollar convertible due in October that this company has let get within two months of expiry, and my view is that no healthy business does that. Receivables are up 120% against 45% revenue growth. The fleet business, Guardian 3, is running trials that keep not converting, and "we are in a trucking recession" is the kind of management excuse I have learned to distrust. We also get into whether a new entrant can just build this now that the market is 16 million vehicles, why no tier one ever bought them, and whether full autonomy eventually kills the whole thesis.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[Late August 2026 Random Ramblings]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/late-august-2026-random-ramblingshttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/late-august-2026-random-ramblingsThu, 27 Aug 2026 13:42:05 GMTRates just screamed to 20 year highs and stocks have barely blinked (see my piece on it here). That looks to me like the mirror image of the mid-2010s, when Treasuries yielded 2%, the math said stocks should trade for 25x, and they sat in the mid-teens instead because the equity risk premium quietly widened from 4% to 6%. If the premium can widen when rates fall, why would it not widen again when rates rise? That is the double whammy running in reverse: earnings that got a decade of help from the Trump tax cuts and the AI boom, multiplied by a multiple heading the wrong way.

The other thing I cannot stop chewing on is what higher rates do to the AI data center buildout. These are 15 year leases where the NPV of the payments roughly covers the build cost, which means the developer is really underwriting the terminal value 15 to 25 years out. Move rates from 4% to 5% and you have to jack the lease rate up 5% to 10% just to stand still, and you discount that terminal value harder, right as the tenant credit gets scarier. If the AI trade cracks, you get hit twice: your tenant may not be around, and the release in year 15 goes from a $100m NOI lease to whatever the next best bidder pays. I do not think we are there yet, but finance 101 says investment gets crowded out eventually.

Then two management questions. UWMC (see my post on them here) and Cogent both ran capital allocation that looked designed for the CEO's personal balance sheet rather than for shareholders, and I want a way to spot that before the blowup rather than after. And a friend's text about a CEO everyone was calling the next Mark Leonard got me wondering how you would ever know, because a real compounder and one great bet with hidden leverage look identical for the first ten years.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Even better: they recently released an MCP that lets you connect their transcripts to the AI model of your choice. If you’re interested, click here to learn more.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[How to win a stock pitch competition | lessons from an Ira Sohn winner]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/how-to-win-a-stock-pitch-competitionhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/how-to-win-a-stock-pitch-competitionTue, 25 Aug 2026 09:55:06 GMTSchool is starting, which means a dozen college and MBA teams are about to email me asking how to win their stock pitch competition. So I made the answer. The core of it: a pitch is a game, and most people lose it before they open their mouth by picking an idea that does not fit the contest rules or the judges in the room.

From there it is three things. Design the pitch for the timeframe the contest actually asks for and for the people judging it, because what wins with a concentrated-book judge is not what wins with a pod shop. Lead with the one thing only you know, not a sell side price target or a multiple that has compressed. And make your bull case the base case instead of hedging yourself into a 15% price target that reads as average. Then the three traps I see every single year: burning five slides on a DCF nobody will ask about, drowning the room in risk factors, and death by background. I also walk through the La Quinta pitch that won me Ira Sohn in 2018, and why the CSL and DoorDash teams at the Pershing Square Challenge won on legwork rather than modeling.

Fair warning: I had AI build the slides, so do not hold the exact wording on any of them against me.

If you are pitching to get hired rather than to win a contest, the companion episode is here.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Even better: they recently released an MCP that lets you connect their transcripts to the AI model of your choice. If you’re interested, click here to learn more.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/elal-el-al-is-a-wartime-monopolyhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/elal-el-al-is-a-wartime-monopolyThu, 20 Aug 2026 17:34:42 GMTEl Al ($ELAL), Israel's flag carrier, has spent three years as close to a monopoly on flying in and out of Ben Gurion as an airline ever gets. Turkish and Pegasus left and aren't coming back, Ryanair lost its Terminal 1 slots, Delta and United keep pushing their return, and El Al has used the windfall to go from a levered balance sheet to net cash, buy nine planes off lease, and start returning capital. It trades at about 2x EBITDA. Adam Buckstein of ASB Partners (back after his Stride episode) thinks you're buying a hard-asset-backed airline (roughly $1.3B net cash, $1B+ of owned planes, a $700M-ish loyalty program valuation) for less than the parts, with two more quarters of gushing profits still to come. (See Adam’s El Al write up here)

My pushbacks: every "delevered on wartime profits" story I can remember (steel, energy after 2022) didn't work as a stock; a chunk of the cash is customer float that vanishes if flights get canceled; the $40M competition-authority fine for wartime pricing plus the state's right to make them fly uneconomically looks like the worst of both worlds; and El Al flies 24/6 (no Sabbath, no holidays), so should you haircut the EBITDA, or does that create a moat nobody else can copy? We close with a Stride ($LRN) update: the abrupt CEO exit, the Canvas LMS disaster, the lost Texas school, why fall enrollments are the fulcrum, and whether AI is a real threat to virtual public schools.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/nu-is-nubank-capital-one-in-1994https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/nu-is-nubank-capital-one-in-1994Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:36:37 GMTNubank ($NU) has 140 million customers, roughly 60% of Brazil's adult population, an efficiency ratio around 20% versus 40-60% at the legacy banks, and ROEs in the 30s. Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital has owned it for four years and thinks the market is still treating it like a risky EM bank instead of what he thinks it is: a tech company that happens to hold deposits, with a founder (David Vélez) who controls it and a runway that runs through Brazil's $100 billion banking profit pool, Mexico, Colombia, and eventually the US.

My pushback is the Capital One question. Capital One was the smartest data-science lender in the room, IPO'd in 1994, went up 13x in 12 years, and then spent the next 20 as a mature bank that lagged the market. Nubank was built by ex-Capital One people, so is this 1994 or 2006? We also get into what the right cost of equity is for a Brazilian bank trading at high-teens earnings with a 30% ROE, whether MELI and Kaspi tell you EM fintech never gets a big multiple, the 13,000-customers-per-employee stat, Brazil NPLs at 15-year highs, the wave of senior departures, whether any banking fintech has ever expanded across borders, Vélez joining OpenAI's board, and my bigger worry that AI eventually commoditizes every financial product and competes away the 30% ROE.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Even better: they recently released an MCP that lets you connect their transcripts to the AI model of your choice. If you’re interested, check out a free transcript on NU here.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/dnow-the-boring-distributor-thathttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/dnow-the-boring-distributor-thatFri, 14 Aug 2026 14:28:58 GMTDNOW spun out of National Oilwell Varco at $35 in late 2014. A year later it was $13. Today it is around $16. Steve Gorelik's argument is that ten years of that chart is one long headwind rather than a broken business: 1,800 US rigs at the spin, under 600 now, global oil and gas investment 40% below 2014 in real dollars, and DNOW still grew margins and bought companies at 4 to 5x EBITDA the whole way through. Rigs have started ticking back up. The MRC Global merger brings $75m of synergies to two businesses that earned $325m of EBITDA apart in 2024. Management has soft-targeted $350m of EBITDA for 2027 against roughly a $3.5B enterprise value, which Steve gets to about $300m of free cash flow on a $3B market cap.

My pushback is that 10x is not deep value, and the double comes almost entirely from multiple expansion back to the 5 to 6% free cash flow yield the market used to pay. Why is 10x the wrong number and not 12 or 14? We also get into the acquisitive compounder paradox, whether the incremental drilling actually shows up in US shale or somewhere else, the Oracle implementation they inherited from MRC and why they are now running it alongside SAP on purpose, the $50m of stock they bought back in the middle of that mess, and whether a business private equity would happily lever to four or six turns belongs in the public market at all. Steve's 2029 case is $30 to $32 per share.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Management interviews: the most underdeveloped skill in investing | Ross O'Toole]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/management-interviews-the-most-underdevelopedhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/management-interviews-the-most-underdevelopedSun, 02 Aug 2026 16:06:31 GMTManagement interviews might be the most underdeveloped skill in fundamental investing. Ross O’Toole has been investing for 25 years and read over 500 investment books, and he couldn’t find a single one on how to actually conduct an investor-management interview.... so he wrote Breaking the Script, a field guide to getting management teams off their rehearsed talking points. We get into why “what” questions beat “why” questions, whether you should grade a plastic surgery CEO and a coal company CEO on the same curve, the case for recording your management meetings, and why asking for examples is one of the biggest double edged swords in investing.

I push back with my standing worry: management teams are really, really good salesmen, and I always walk out of these meetings wondering if I’m the patsy at the poker table. Ross’s answers (build a longitudinal baseline over repeat interviews, ask for the negative example every time you get a positive one, and save the hard questions for the crescendo) are why this book went straight to the top of my “hand it to an intern” list.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav —for two weeks free, plus 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[July 2026 Random Ramblings]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/july-2026-random-ramblingshttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/july-2026-random-ramblingsMon, 27 Jul 2026 11:41:52 GMTInvesting is a game of arrogance. The base rate when you buy any stock is that it just does the market return, so every position you hold is a bet that you know something the market doesn't. My July ramble is really one question asked five ways: when do you look in the mirror and admit you were wrong? I walk through my three-year rule on a single name (if it has gone nowhere for three years, the problem is probably you, not the market), and the harder version, a value fund that has underperformed for a decade.

I use myself as the example. I saw AI inflecting in late 2024 and didn't pull the trigger, because I'm a value and event guy and I didn't see the bet, and a lot of those names then went on a generational run. Was that discipline or a mental block? From there I get into why you're effectively short Nvidia if you don't own it and you're benchmarked to the S&P, the Fundsmith letter walking back its principles as the cautionary tale on both sides, my own April 2025 book (the net-cash biotech and the Nebius trade I sold way too early), and why London increasingly trades like an emerging market: a takeover wave, private value miles above public value, and the frustration of owning cheap names that only move if someone buys the whole company.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

16_9 19.png

Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav —for two weeks free, plus 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$LNW: a slot machine oligopoly at half Aristocrat's multiple | Zack Buckley]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lnw-a-slot-machine-oligopoly-at-halfhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lnw-a-slot-machine-oligopoly-at-halfFri, 24 Jul 2026 13:02:29 GMTLight & Wonder ($LNW) is one of three companies in the slot machine oligopoly, with 70%+ recurring revenue, and it trades at 7-8x EBITDA while Aristocrat, its closest peer and arguably its slower-growing twin, trades at roughly double that. Zack Buckley thinks the market is wrong on almost every count: the stock has traded like a SaaS chart on AI fears even though slot content has almost no AI exposure, the Street doesn't believe 2028 targets from a management team that already hit the last three-year guide it set, and the soft first half is a game-launch timing story (Aristocrat launched in H1, Light & Wonder's slate lands in H2), not share loss. Zach has sized this the largest he's ever sized anything, and you can hear it.

I push back where I can: whether Caesars could ever build its own boxes (Zack: Marriott doesn't build elevators), why management is paying down debt to appease Australian shareholders instead of murdering the share count at these prices, what the Dragon Train settlement really cost them, and SciPlay's genuine AI risk. We also cover the move to a sole Australian listing, the Grover charitable-gaming acquisition at ~7.5x EBITDA, and what would actually break the thesis.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

Most AI tools are very good at sounding right; the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source.

Learn more at alpha-sense.com/YAVP.

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cbz-stop-the-buybacks-and-restarthttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cbz-stop-the-buybacks-and-restartTue, 14 Jul 2026 13:06:06 GMTRyan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M&A flywheel that compounded revenue at 13%/year and took EBIT margins from 9% to 14% over the last decade. For someone like me who has always been a sucker for share buybacks, "stop the buybacks and issue equity" lands like a knife right in the gut, so I make him defend every piece of it.

We get into whether the $2.3B Marcum deal (the largest accounting acquisition ever, with the stock down ~70% since) deserves a mulligan, whether the multiple got crushed by 3.4x leverage or by AI headline fear, whether AI lets the Big Four come downmarket and eat CBIZ's middle-market lunch (or lets superstar producers hang their own flag), and whether long-term investors would really put primary equity onto the balance sheet at no discount. Ryan's math: the market prices credit risk, small 6-9x EBITDA bolt-ons restart the compounding machine, and a delevered, re-rated CBIZ has 100%+ upside.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

Most AI tools are very good at sounding right; the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source.

Learn more at alpha-sense.com/YAVP.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[Adam Wyden: buying someone else's pain in Stagwell $STGW and Driven Brands $DRVN | ADW Capital]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/adam-wyden-buying-someone-elses-painhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/adam-wyden-buying-someone-elses-painTue, 07 Jul 2026 21:01:56 GMTAdam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters.

I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional-grade platform without the complexity. I use Fiscal AI to research my holdings, find new investment ideas, and deepen my analysis. It’s fast, intuitive, and has genuinely helped my research process. Check it out at fiscal.ai/yav —for two weeks free, plus 15% off any of their paid plans.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/pershing-square-challenge-2026-finalists-f56https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/pershing-square-challenge-2026-finalists-f56Tue, 30 Jun 2026 11:51:29 GMTMSA Safety ($MSA) is the “OG pick and shovel” of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues (you can see their full pitch here) is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the “canary” that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.

EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA’s owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?

(Note for the OGs: this was recorded in early June but got held up between production, so it is podcast 398 but just posting way out of order!).

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. See why I like them so much by checking them out here.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[$FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/fox-dropped-25-buying-roku-is-thehttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/fox-dropped-25-buying-roku-is-theSun, 28 Jun 2026 18:05:09 GMTThe market has decided Fox ($FOXA) blundered by paying $22 billion for Roku ($ROKU), and it has cut Fox roughly 25% in the two weeks since the deal was announced. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong (see his write up here). His case: Roku controls about 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, roughly 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the front door to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs, and below the surface the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you give Roku credit for its barely-tapped ad levers and a few synergies. We get into the Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

This month’s episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing: everyone is telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody is asking which tools actually give you an edge. I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. Join us on June 25th. Register here.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

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]]><![CDATA[June 2026 Random Ramblings]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/june-2026-random-ramblingshttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/june-2026-random-ramblingsThu, 25 Jun 2026 11:53:33 GMTSpaceX is buying Cursor for $60 billion, one of SBF's old FTX-era bets, which raises an uncomfortable question: was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? Andrew's monthly ramble across the things he can't stop thinking about: AI as a force multiplier instead of a job killer, why deep expertise gets more valuable as the world fills with AI slop, whether legacy brands gain power in an AI world, why a long time horizon is rarely the edge people claim it is, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

This month’s episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing: everyone is telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody is asking which tools actually give you an edge. I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. Join us on June 25th. Register here.

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[$YOU.L: is YouGov really an AI loser? | Jonathan Cohen, Zipperline Capital]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/youl-is-yougov-really-an-ai-loserhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/youl-is-yougov-really-an-ai-loserSun, 21 Jun 2026 18:31:43 GMTThe market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone’s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody’s asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process.

If you’re trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won’t want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now!

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD]]>https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/alex-roepers-on-two-deep-value-specialhttps://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/alex-roepers-on-two-deep-value-specialMon, 15 Jun 2026 01:29:33 GMTAlex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums. (Disclosure: long DSH and NOMD)

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone’s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody’s asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process.

If you’re trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won’t want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now!

Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or YouTube! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Share Yet Another Value Blog

Transcript for paid subs begins below (The initial transcript is AI-generated and is replaced with a professionally edited version when available)

Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

Read more

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