Yet Another Value Blog: Yet Another Value Podcast

July 2026 Random Ramblings

Andrew Walker — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 11:41:52 GMT

Investing is a game of arrogance. The base rate when you buy any stock is that it just does the market return, so every position you hold is a bet that you know something the market doesn't. My July ramble is really one question asked five ways: when do you look in the mirror and admit you were wrong? I walk through my three-year rule on a single name (if it has gone nowhere for three years, the problem is probably you, not the market), and the harder version, a value fund that has underperformed for a decade.

I use myself as the example. I saw AI inflecting in late 2024 and didn't pull the trigger, because I'm a value and event guy and I didn't see the bet, and a lot of those names then went on a generational run. Was that discipline or a mental block? From there I get into why you're effectively short Nvidia if you don't own it and you're benchmarked to the S&P, the Fundsmith letter walking back its principles as the cautionary tale on both sides, my own April 2025 book (the net-cash biotech and the Nebius trade I sold way too early), and why London increasingly trades like an emerging market: a takeover wave, private value miles above public value, and the frustration of owning cheap names that only move if someone buys the whole company.

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Disclaimer: Nothing on this podcast or on this blog is investing or financial advice; please see our full disclaimer here. The transcript below is from a third party transcription service; it’s entirely possible there are some errors in the transcript.

$LNW: a slot machine oligopoly at half Aristocrat's multiple | Zack Buckley

Andrew Walker — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 13:02:29 GMT

Light & Wonder ($LNW) is one of three companies in the slot machine oligopoly, with 70%+ recurring revenue, and it trades at 7-8x EBITDA while Aristocrat, its closest peer and arguably its slower-growing twin, trades at roughly double that. Zack Buckley thinks the market is wrong on almost every count: the stock has traded like a SaaS chart on AI fears even though slot content has almost no AI exposure, the Street doesn't believe 2028 targets from a management team that already hit the last three-year guide it set, and the soft first half is a game-launch timing story (Aristocrat launched in H1, Light & Wonder's slate lands in H2), not share loss. Zach has sized this the largest he's ever sized anything, and you can hear it.

I push back where I can: whether Caesars could ever build its own boxes (Zack: Marriott doesn't build elevators), why management is paying down debt to appease Australian shareholders instead of murdering the share count at these prices, what the Dragon Train settlement really cost them, and SciPlay's genuine AI risk. We also cover the move to a sole Australian listing, the Grover charitable-gaming acquisition at ~7.5x EBITDA, and what would actually break the thesis.

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$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity

Andrew — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:06:06 GMT

Ryan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M&A flywheel that compounded revenue at 13%/year and took EBIT margins from 9% to 14% over the last decade. For someone like me who has always been a sucker for share buybacks, "stop the buybacks and issue equity" lands like a knife right in the gut, so I make him defend every piece of it.

We get into whether the $2.3B Marcum deal (the largest accounting acquisition ever, with the stock down ~70% since) deserves a mulligan, whether the multiple got crushed by 3.4x leverage or by AI headline fear, whether AI lets the Big Four come downmarket and eat CBIZ's middle-market lunch (or lets superstar producers hang their own flag), and whether long-term investors would really put primary equity onto the balance sheet at no discount. Ryan's math: the market prices credit risk, small 6-9x EBITDA bolt-ons restart the compounding machine, and a delevered, re-rated CBIZ has 100%+ upside.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

Learn more at alpha-sense.com/YAVP.

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Adam Wyden: buying someone else's pain in Stagwell $STGW and Driven Brands $DRVN | ADW Capital

Andrew Walker — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 21:01:56 GMT

Adam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters.

I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA

Andrew Walker — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 11:51:29 GMT

MSA Safety ($MSA) is the “OG pick and shovel” of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues (you can see their full pitch here) is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the “canary” that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.

EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA’s owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?

(Note for the OGs: this was recorded in early June but got held up between production, so it is podcast 398 but just posting way out of order!).

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I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. See why I like them so much by checking them out here.

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$FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest

Andrew — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:05:09 GMT

The market has decided Fox ($FOXA) blundered by paying $22 billion for Roku ($ROKU), and it has cut Fox roughly 25% in the two weeks since the deal was announced. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong (see his write up here). His case: Roku controls about 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, roughly 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the front door to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs, and below the surface the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you give Roku credit for its barely-tapped ad levers and a few synergies. We get into the Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

This month’s episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing: everyone is telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody is asking which tools actually give you an edge. I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. Join us on June 25th. Register here.

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June 2026 Random Ramblings

Andrew Walker — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:53:33 GMT

SpaceX is buying Cursor for $60 billion, one of SBF's old FTX-era bets, which raises an uncomfortable question: was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? Andrew's monthly ramble across the things he can't stop thinking about: AI as a force multiplier instead of a job killer, why deep expertise gets more valuable as the world fills with AI slop, whether legacy brands gain power in an AI world, why a long time horizon is rarely the edge people claim it is, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

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$YOU.L: is YouGov really an AI loser? | Jonathan Cohen, Zipperline Capital

Andrew Walker — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 18:31:43 GMT

The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone’s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody’s asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I’m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process.

If you’re trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won’t want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now!

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Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD

Andrew Walker — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 01:29:33 GMT

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums. (Disclosure: long DSH and NOMD)

This podcast is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone’s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody’s asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

If you’re trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won’t want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now!

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Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists pitch Amadeus $AMS | the toll booth on global travel

Andrew Walker — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 13:03:57 GMT

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus (see their pitch deck here), Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

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May 2026 Random Ramblings

Andrew Walker — Sun, 31 May 2026 14:38:42 GMT

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Pershing Square Challenge 2026 winners on DoorDash $DASH

Andrew Walker — Fri, 22 May 2026 18:11:08 GMT

The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge (ZK Feng, Aaron Samuels, Elliot Tompras) 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Plus, if you’re interested in DASH, you can see the transcript I used to prepare for this podcast here.

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Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital $DRVN

Andrew Walker — Thu, 14 May 2026 12:42:15 GMT

Driven Brands ($DRVN; disclosure: long) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) returns (see his first DRVN appearance here) to walk through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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$LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe

Andrew Walker — Sun, 10 May 2026 12:27:01 GMT

Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

Earnings season has always been a test of speed and discipline—but the real challenge isn’t just keeping up. It’s cutting through the noise, tracking what matters across dozens of companies, and turning information into insight before the next call begins. AlphaSense’s AI Playbook for Earnings Season shows how leading investment and corporate strategy teams are using AI-driven workflows to stay ahead—summarizing transcripts instantly, monitoring competitors in real time, and surfacing the metrics that move markets. The difference is how the work gets done. Instead of juggling spreadsheets, notes, and disconnected tools, teams can centralize earnings intelligence, validate consensus with trusted research, and act on signals faster—before opportunities pass. You can download your complimentary copy of The AI Playbook for Earnings Season here. And if you’d like to try AlphaSense for free, request your trial at alpha-sense.com/YAVP.

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$STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelion Research's Leo Trudel

Andrew Walker — Tue, 05 May 2026 13:24:28 GMT

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelion Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

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Can Sprout Social Survive the SaaSpocalypse with Pernas Research's Deiya Pernas

Andrew Walker — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 10:53:18 GMT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

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Drilling into LandBridge's value with Chadd Garcia $LB

Andrew Walker — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 12:21:42 GMT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chadd Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chadd outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.

This podcast is sponsored by AlphaSense.

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Investing in the SaaSpocalypse with Heller House's Marcelo Lima

Andrew Walker — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 11:43:15 GMT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". After writing two memos on the topic, Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai

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Transcript for paid subs begins below (Note: in order to get these up quickly, I post an AI generated transcript alongside the podcast. A professionally edited transcript comes a few days later; I replace the AI generated transcript once the professional one is available)

Why DraftKings might not be a big gamble with Aganju's Tolu Bukola $DKNG

Andrew Walker — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 13:03:26 GMT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings (note: you can see Tolu’s DKNG write up here) and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.

This podcast is sponsored by Trata

I already know you’re going to like trata. Why? Because you’re reading this blog post, meaning you’re interested in this podcast. And trata is just like this podcast (though without the handsome host!). Trata is anonymized transcripts of buysiders discussing stocks they are following and what they really think will drive the stock. I’ve been mentioning it on the podcast for months, and the most frequent complaint I hear from people who check it out is they wish trata had more content on more of their stocks. Plus, if you’re interested in DKNG, you can see the transcript I used to prepare for this podcast here.

April 2026 Random Ramblings

Andrew Walker — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 11:17:06 GMT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.

This podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai