Friday, October 27, 2017

Bagholding with $NYRT

Upfront note: this post is long and dives into the weeds a bit. If you want the Twitter version, it’s 1) NYRT’s trading at a huge discount to their last reported NAV of $9.21, 2) that NAV is almost certainly overstated, 3) despite that overstatement, even using a set of pretty conservative assumptions it’s tough to come up with a NAV that isn’t a good deal higher than today’s price, 4) I’m very bullish on the remaining WW piece and think it could create significant value. Full post below.

Friday, October 20, 2017

A few quirky things that caught my eye

Based on my recent focus on Charter (CHTR, disclosure: long) and Netflix, you might figure I spend all of my time in the telecom / media space, but that's more a recent focus and, in general, I actually follow mostly smaller and quirkier companies. One of the things you learn quickly about smaller / quirkier companies is that the potential for head scratching moves and shenanigans are way higher. Sometimes the shenanigans can be a good thing (a quirky / charismatic leader making investments and experiments no one else is willing to make / try / see that pay off in the long run), sometimes the shenanigans can be a bad thing (a financially illiterate monster running your company into the ground while collecting fat paychecks), but at a minimum it’s normally interesting. Here are a few of the quirkier things I’ve seen recently.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Some additional random thoughts on Netflix $NFLX

Last night, we did a podcast on Netflix’s Q3’17 earnings (in addition to the PG / Trian proxy battle). I’ve found podcasting is good for talking about broader topics and poor for diving into specific investment thoughts / details, so I wanted to type up a few more investing /stock specific thoughts that popped up from their Q3’17 earnings call.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Matching with IAC $IAC $MTCH

IAC Interactive (IAC; disclosure: long) represents the opportunity to invest in a company trading for roughly the same price of its publicly traded equity stakes despite the presence of world class capital allocators with a proven history of realizing shareholder value at the opportune time, hundreds of millions in net cash on their balance sheet, and a grab bag of other (quite valuable) assets.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Cord cutting and other cable risks $CHTR

An increasingly long time ago, I was an analyst for a consulting firm. In ~2012, we were working with one of the big cable companies and I was on a call discussing some work I was doing modeling their finances going forward using different assumptions for cord cutting (things like what if 3% of customers cut the cord every year versus 5%). My focus was, in particular, on how it would impact the company’s cash flow going forward. I was going through some different assumptions when one of their top managers jumped on, cut me off, and said something along the lines of, “It won’t matter. We’ll just raise their broadband prices when they drop TV.”

Monday, October 2, 2017

Still bullish on Charter $CHTR

I’ve previously published some bullish thoughts on Charter (disclosure: net long through the Liberty complex), but I wanted to publish some random updated thoughts here (to tip my hand, I plan on publishing a Liberty Ventures (LVNTA, disclosure: long) update in the wake of the GCI proxy getting filed and wanted to have updated thoughts on Charter to go with it).