Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Novelion might not be an orphan for much longer $NVLN

  • Novelion has a fantastically interesting history
  • The company's financials currently look like a train wreck
  • A relatively conservative sum of the parts shows significant upside from today's prices

Sunday, February 26, 2017

This time could be different for SWK Holdings $SWKH

  • SWK Holdings hasn't had a great past couple of years
  • Whether you take the company's book value number or substantially haircut it, the stock trades well below book value at today's prices
  • There are some early signs that the future could be much brighter for SWK.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Will activism at YuMe lead to a Sizmek like premium? $YUME

  • After years of mismanagement, activists have seized control of YuMe.
  • Now they’re cutting costs like crazy and running a strategic process.
  • While there’s significant potential upside, the market seems to be implying YuMe and its peers are in deep, deep trouble.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

CSX a fascinating study in comp and activism $CSX

  • Mantle Ridge and CSX have each employed unique strategies in their current proxy battle
  • The battle has me thinking a lot about comp and activism going forward
  • Will strong CEOs leave their current jobs to take over under-performers more frequently going forward? Is that good or bad for investors?

Friday, February 17, 2017

Hain's accounting issues could present opportunity $HAIN

  • Hain hasn't filed financials in almost a year now.
  • Like Comscore, there's a lot of smoke here.
  • Unlike Comscore, I like the risk / reward at these prices.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Layne's Heavy sale a catalyst for a blog post $LAYN

  • Last night, LAYN announced a sale of their Heavy Civil division
  • I’ve had the write up below ready to go for a while, and the sale “catalyzed” me to post it before it became too stale
  • LAYN’s an interesting SOTP story, but there are definitely a lot of lingering questions

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

With this much smoke, is ComScore actually on fire? $SCOR

  • ComScore’s (SCOR) shares were rocked yesterday on continued accounting issues
  • I thought this might be a case of a bit of smoke and no fire, but man there is a lot of smoke here. It’s tough to imagine that smoke is coming from anything other than a raging inferno.
  • All of these thoughts are preliminary; if you have a different (and well researched) angle, I’d love to hear it.

Monday, February 6, 2017

FGL's potential merger break could offer upside $FGL

  • FGL is in a merger with Anbang that is likely to break later this week
  • Despite the likely break, FGL's stock looks interesting on a host of fundamental metrics.
  • If the deal does break, it seems a decent bet majority owner HRG will look to sell FGL again in the near future.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

The "bonus for everyone" culture is killing shareholders

Roughly 15% of the posts I see on Facebook complain about “kids these days” (Before the election, it was probably 25%. Now my Facebook feed is probably 15% “kids these days”, 65% political rants, 15% baby photos or engagement announcements, and 10% cute puppy videos. Related note: I only like 10% of my Facebook feed). One of the most common complaints about “kids these days” has to do with the “trophy for everyone” culture ruining them and making them feel entitled. Maybe they’re wrong, maybe they’re right. Who knows?

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

MEI Pharma: Massive upside not reflected in today's price $MEIP

  • A failed Phase II trial for their main drug caused investors to abandon MEI Pharma (MEIP)
  • Today, the company trades for below net cash
  • Despite the failed trial, some recent good news suggest there could be significant upside potential hiding here

Ophthotech: a quick follow up $OPHT

  • Ophthotech (OPHT) announced a strategic review this morning
  • The review is great if you're a member of the management team or a believer that the management team has significant skill in identifying unique compounds; for everyone else, not so much.
  • The current plans probably call for a capital raise or partner in a few years, and it'll be interestign to see that dynamic play out.