Friday, August 17, 2018

Hoping Hill's restatement isn't too big a hill to climb $HIL $HILI

Upfront Disclaimer: Hill (HIL or HILI; disclosure: long) is on the smaller end (market cap well under $500m), was just delisted / trades OTC, and is well behind on their financials. Risks are obviously elevated here; please do your own research as nothing on this blog is a recommendation.

Monday, August 13, 2018

Some notes from the spectacular Tribune Sinclair lawsuit $SBGI $TRCO

I’ve been looking at the local broadcasters (Nexstar, Tribune, Sinclair, etc.) recently (no position in any of them currently) due to a combination of curiosity, cheapness, and interest in the sector given overlap with a lot of my cable / telecom investments. I might have a (much) longer article on them at some point on the big question that looms over them (and basically the entire legacy cable bundle): what happens if one of the major networks loses their NFL package when they’re up for renegotiation in the next year or two? Doesn’t that throw everything related to that specific network (the network, all of their contracts with cable companies and local broadcasters, all of the local broadcasters’ contracts, etc.) into complete chaos?

Monday, August 6, 2018

Semi-Case Study / Background on Aimia $GAPFF

Almost exactly a year ago (August 15th, to be exact) I started research on (and took a small position in) Aimia (ticker: GAPFF, disclosure: long the equity and preferreds in roughly equal size). The investment has had ups and downs (the prior management team almost ran the company into the ground through a combination of incompetence and one of the worst transactions I've ever seen, but fortunately some shareholders got involved and brought in a new management team). Today, the company is in one of the weirdest special situations I’ve ever seen: they are balancing two hostile offers (one from Air Canada plus their credit card companies ("the consortium") for their Aeroplan program and one for their Mexican PLM investment) while simultaneously striking partnerships to prep to relaunch their Aeroplan program once Air Canada leaves in 2020.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Some updated thoughts on Charter post earnings $CHTR

In general, I don’t like to write follow up pieces on the blog. It’s way more fun to research and write about new companies / situation / ideas, and I think it’s more fun for you (the reader) to read about new things as well. So I tend to avoid follow up pieces unless I think I’m putting out something that’s dramatically different to what I’ve been thinking or if I’m putting out something that I don’t think many people have picked up on yet (like with the Braves (disclosure: long) and the focus on their real estate last week).

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Some things and ideas: July 2018

Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later in the month.

Friday, July 27, 2018

A single so far, but the Braves could turn into a home run $BATRA

About a year ago, I wrote up the Liberty / Atlanta Braves (BATRA; disclosure: long). Shares were trading at around ~$23/share then and are a hair over $25 today, so the results so far have been acceptable but far from a home run.

Monday, July 23, 2018

The Theft of GGP: Special Situations Analysis

In my previous post (The Death of Malls and the Theft of GGP), I talked about the death of Class A malls and how I thought BPY was stealing GGP. I also mentioned that there was a serious special situations angle to the deal, which I’ll cover in this post.