Thursday, August 24, 2017

Conversation on $MSG

I went on Hedgeye to discuss our investment in MSG (disclosure: long). The video is ~17 minutes long; I have a feeling you'll like it if you follow this blog.

Monday, August 7, 2017

Do insiders think $DFRG sell-off is a rare opportunity?

It’s pretty rare these days to find a U.S. stock that simply no one has heard of or taken a look at. When I stumble on a stock, the first thing I do is search my email to see if I’ve emailed anyone about it and then check VIC and Sumzero to see if it’s been written up on one of those sites, and it’s astonishing how rare it is that the stock hasn’t been mentioned in one of those three places. So, increasingly, all investors are using the same tools to look at the same stocks (at least in the U.S. markets; foreign markets seem less picked over from my seat but me and most of the people I talk to might just have a U.S. bias).

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Is $RSO too discounted?

Note: I wrote this over the weekend and meant to post before earnings came out, but I got distracted by the tragedy that is AMC. RSO reported earnings last night and filed an 8-K with a bit more info on their LCC sale on Tuesday, so some of the numbers here are slightly stale, but directionally everything is completely consistent so I’m fine posting it now (though I haven't listened to the earnings call yet). Enjoy!

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

$AMC : That escalated quickly

Well, that escalated quickly.
I mentioned AMC (disclosure: long, unfortunately) on the blog ~a month ago. Last night, the company provided preliminary Q2’17 and FY17 guidance that could only be described as disastrous. The stock has certainly responded today, down ~25%, and the rest of the movie theater sector is performing much better (NCMI down 16%, CNK down 6%, RGC down 5%, IMAX down ~8%). So I guess given the share price performance it be more accurate to say that de-escalated quickly.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

More questions at FranklinCovey $FC

Bill Ackman coined (or perhaps stole, IDK) the “return-on-invested-brain-damage” calculation. His basic thought is to figure out what the potential return from an investment is and weigh it against the effort and complexity required to unlock that value. If it’s a super complex and difficult situation with limited return, pass. If it’s massively difficult but the upside is huge, go for it.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Some Thoughts on Stock Dilution Part 2 $RLJE

Note: this is part two in a series that started discussing stock dilution and Turning Point Brands (TPB); please see part 1 here.

Some Thoughts on Stock Dilution Part 1 $TPB

Note: this article started out as one article, but I decided to split it into two separate articles and link the two of them to 1) make it easier to link to specific ideas in the future, 2) break up what was becoming a long article, and 3) because #pageviews. You can find Part 2 here.